Gary Klein, Paul Johnson and Paul Sonkin were interviewed in episode 109 of the Capital Allocator’s Podcast by Ted Seides. Click here to listen to the podcast or to download the transcript.
The conversation covers Gary’s background studying expertise with fighter pilots, tools to improve decision-making, including the Shadow Box technique, Cognitive After-Action Reviews, and Pre-Mortems. Then the discussion turns to do a deep dive on Pre-Mortem analysis, including its history in the Air Force, what it is, how it works, when it falls short, and the benefits of reducing overconfidence, time efficiency, increasing candor, making groups smarter. The discussion continues with views on other risk mitigation techniques as well, including devil’s advocates, red teams, risk assessment, and critiques.
Together Gary, Paul and Paul co-authored a paper entitled Rendering a Powerful Tool Flaccid: The Misuse of Premortems on Wall Street. The paper is a detailed look at how properly conduct Pre-Mortem analysis.